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Agentura Nikkei přinesla informaci, podle které chce japonská společnost Sony jednat se svým tchajwanským partnerem TSMC – největším smluvním výrobcem čipů na světě – o možné výstavbě vlastní továrny v Japonsku. Tímto krokem chce Sony čelit aktuální krizi, v níž je polovodičových čipů akutní nedostatek, což se neodráží jen v nedostatku herních konzolí, ale v podstatě jakékoliv elektroniky od televizí, až po řídící jednotky v osobních automobilech. Krok Sony, který zatím zástupci společnosti oficiálně nekomentovali, má být podle Nikkei posvěcen i japonskou vládou, která se má na výstavbě továrny podílet investicí dosud nespecifikované výše. Celkové náklady mají přitom činit přibližně 800 miliard jenů, tedy více než 150 miliard korun a čipy, které v továrně vzniknou, by měly pomoci z větší části zásobovat celý japonský trh.
Polovodičové čipy tak mají být skutečně k dispozici pro automobily, obrazové snímače fotoaparátů, herní konzole a další výrobky, které jsou postižené celosvětovou krizí, přičemž v provozu by měla být výrobna už v roce 2024. Ačkoliv jde o termín, do kterého by se měla nabídka opět vyrovnat poptávce, prognózy jsou stále značně nejisté a neexistuje záruka, že krize bude ještě delší, než se původně očekávalo. Zároveň nejde jen o krok, který by svým zájmem poháněla Sony, případně Japonsko jako země – obavy o přílišnou koncentraci kapacit podobných továren v Číně a na Tchaj-wanu má samotná TSMC, která chce jednoduše rozšířit pole své působnosti a obsáhnout více regionů, nezávislých na vlastním zásobování.
Do značné míry ale aktuální zpráva kopíruje odhady analytiků, s nimiž přišli na konci září letošního roku. Společnost IDC, která se soustředí na trh ve Spojených státech, začala varovat před nadbytkem čipů, který by mohl přijít po momentální zvýšené snahy krizi vyřešit. Nové továrny totiž nemá uvádět do provozu pouze Sony, ale spekuluje se také o nových linkách Samsungu, Intelu a dalších od TSMC na území USA. Bez vhodného plánování a rozdělení kapacit tak může dojít k zaplavení trhu nepotřebnými čipy, což sice na začátku zákazník jistě uvítá – elektronika by byla rázem nejen dostupná, ale levnější – nicméně v dlouhodobém horizontu může podobný překotný postup vyústit k ekonomickým škodám, skokovému nárůstu nezaměstnanosti v oblastech nových továren a dalším nepříjemným situacím.
Bez ohledu na to, zda se informace Nikkei projeví jako věrohodné, řada zástupců technologických firem konzervativně uvádí, že krize může trvat minimálně do konce příštího roku, jak komentovaly například společnosti AMD, Nvidia nebo Toshiba. Zůstává tedy stále otázkou, jak rychle se dokáže trh zotavit, případně jaké kroky budou muset být vykonány, aby k narovnání došlo. Alespoň prozatím můžeme kolem sebe sledovat spíše prohlubování celé krize a dopad na odvětví, která bychom si ještě před časem s nedostatkem čipů nespojovali.
11. 10. 2021
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